Vongfong-cat5

UPDATE, Oct. 7, 3:40 p.m. ET: Super Typhoon Vongfong has intensified further, with maximum sustained winds of about 180 miles per hour and gusts higher than 200 miles per hour. This puts it among the strongest storms on record, based on a satellite estimate.

Super Typhoon Vongfong is now equivalent to a high-end Category 5 storm, and it is forecast to intensify further during the next six hours, until it has winds of about 195 miles per hour, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. By some measures it is equivalent to, if not slightly stronger than, Super Typhoon Haiyan, which devastated the Philippines in 2013. Its perfectly symmetrical satellite appearance is the sort that weather geeks the world over use as their screensavers.

Super Typhoon Vongfong has reached meteorological perfection, and hence peak destructiveness, as it churns across the warm waters of the Western Pacific Ocean toward Japan.

The storm intensified overnight into the equivalent of a strong Category 4 hurricane on the cusp of Category 5 status, with maximum sustained winds of at least 155 miles per hour. Super Typhoon Vongfong is heading for Japan, which is still recovering from Typhoon Phanfone over the weekend.

A one-two punch of typhoons, coming in a season that has battered Japan with several other intense storms, could result in severe, life-threatening flooding and mudslides, depending on Super Typhoon Vongfong’s ultimate track and intensity as it approaches on Sunday and Monday. Due to cooler ocean temperatures and stronger upper atmospheric winds, it is highly unlikely that Vongfong will still be this powerful when it strikes Japan.

Vongfong Moonlight

But based on satellite imagery, Vongfong has reached an intensity level that few storms on Earth ever achieve, and it may still be intensifying slightly. It is likely to reach high-end Category 5 intensity, with sustained winds of greater than 155 mph, on Tuesday.

Vongfong is also the most powerful storm on the planet this year, based on estimated minimum central air pressure (the lower the pressure, the stronger the storm). By that metric, it could approach the intensity of Super Typhoon Haiyan, which decimated parts of the Philippines in 2013.

Vongfong Rainbow

Computer model projections show that the storm, which is currently moving west over the open waters of the Western Pacific Ocean, will make a sharp turn to the north and northwest late this week, while slowing down in forward speed. It will begin weakening as it moves closer to Japan, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, but the forecast track takes it near or over mainland Japan, including major cities such as Tokyo.

Computer Models

Considerable uncertainty exists regarding the storm’s track and intensity several days in advance, but computer models in the last few days have consistently been predicting either a very close call or a direct hit on Japan. In fact, the predicted path is extremely similar to Typhoon Phanfone, which brought 70 mph winds to Tokyo.

Vongfong CIMSS

If the storm does strike Japan, the biggest threat it will pose will come in the form of water. Parts of Japan received up to two feet of rain from Typhoon Phanfone over the weekend, and two other typhoons that have hit this year also dumped copious amounts of rainfall. Given that Japan is a mountainous country, there could be a high danger of mudslides along mountain slopes.