Treasuries began a holiday-shortened week right where they left off, with yields sliding to all-time lows.
Benchmark 10-year note yields slid together with those on 30-year securities as signs of slowing growth in Europe ended a five-day gain in global stocks. In the U.S., a jobs report Friday may will offer clues as to the direction of the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate move. The odds in futures markets of tighter U.S. policy this year fell after the U.K. unexpectedly voted last month to leave the European Union, clouding the outlook for global growth. Treasuries were closed globally July 4 for the U.S. Independence Day holiday.
“This is the most obvious manifestation of the global search for yield forcing investors further out the curve,” said Damien McColough, head of fixed-income research at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney. “The size of the drop in the 30-year yield reflects a bit of a capitulation trade, but I am not particularly surprised. The market is now trying to work out what the new range will be.”
The benchmark Treasury 10-year note yield dropped five basis points, or 0.05 percentage point, to 1.39 percent as of 7:12 a.m. New York time, after reaching a record-low 1.375 percent. The price of the 1.625 percent security due in May 2026 rose 1/2, or $5 per $1,000 face amount, to 102 5/32.
The 30-year bond yield slid to an unprecedented 2.1395 percent.
The probability of a Fed rate increase by year-end stands at 12 percent, from 59 percent a month ago, according to fed fund futures data compiled by Bloomberg. Economists estimate U.S. employers increased payrolls by 175,000 positions in June, after unexpectedly adding just 38,000 jobs in May, the least since 2010.
“Prior to the U.K. referendum, this payrolls report was considered one of the most important events to watch,” said Tomohisa Fujiki, the Tokyo-based chief rate strategist at BNP Paribas SA, who predicts the 10-year yield could drop to 1.35 percent in the near term. “It’s quite difficult to judge how low is too low for yields amid a slower outlook for global growth and recent demand for haven assets.”
The Treasury rally extends a bull market that began in the early 1980s, after 10-year and 30-year yields peaked above 15 percent.
The Brexit decision accelerated a global rush for the safest assets as it threatened to curb growth and spur increased central-bank stimulus. Some monetary authorities, including the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank, are experimenting with negative interest rates to spur their economies, pushing yields on almost $10 billion of securities in the Bloomberg Global Developed Sovereign Bond Index below zero and boosting the relative allure of Treasuries.
“There is obviously the global factor, which is effectively fear,” said Martin Whetton, a Sydney-based interest-rate strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. “The market’s rallying on the fear of a further slowdown, the Fed being unable to hike, and obviously Brexit.”