Neil Munro

 

The GOP’s “generic congressional ballot” deficit has rapidly shrunk in the last few weeks as voters count their financial benefits from the tax cut.

The latest measure was a poll conducted for the Wall Street Journal and NBC news, which showed that voters give Democrats a six-point edge, down from 11 points in December, when asked which side they will pick during the 2018 midterm elections.

The Democratic dip compressed the partisan gap down to a difference of 8.1 points on the four-poll average maintained by RealClearPolitics.com.

The GOP disadvantage may shrink further as voters watch the Democrats shutter the federal government this month in an unpopular effort to win amnesty for millions of illegals.

The sudden shift is likely to freeze Democrats’ hope of a House takeover in November, partly because individual GOP candidates tend to gain a few points between the last poll and the ballot-count on election day.

If the gap closes to only a four points before the election, then the GOP will grow more confident about keeping their House majority in President Donald Trump’s first midterm election.

 

In 2006, Democrats gained 31 seats when they had a generic ballot advantage of 10 points.  Democrats gained 31 seats in 2008 with a generic advantage of 14 points. In 2010, the GOP’s generic advantage was just 2 points, but they gained 63 seats.