Estimates may be made for congressional seat changes after the 2020 Census…

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(Jonathan Williams, The Hill) A report I have authored with Arthur Laffer for the past decade, “Rich States, Poor States,” has tracked this movement, as Americans “vote with their feet” across state lines. Our research provides policymakers timely data linking migration to state-level policy decisions and economic competitiveness.

In general, states that keep taxes low and provide a competitive business climate perform far better than the states that follow the tax-and-spend approach.

In terms of overall population changes over the past year, that finding is once again confirmed. The United States has grown to nearly 327 million residents, with highly competitive economies in Idaho, Nevada and Utah leading the way this past year in percentage growth…

Seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are apportioned based on the total number of residents within a state. In addition, congressional apportionment affects the Electoral College, which could swing future, close presidential elections. There are several methods that the firm, Election Data Services, uses when attempting to estimate which states will be the big winners and losers of the 2020 Census.

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The new 2017 Census estimates can be used to give us a year-over-year change from 2016 or, alternatively, estimates can be based on a longer-trend line. The data gives a nice summary of estimates for congressional seat changes after the 2020 Census.

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Source: Election Data Services

The state with the largest downside risk appears to be Illinois, which will lose one congressional seat in 2020 and is in danger of being the only state in the U.S. to lose two seats…

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