You gotta’ give the loser liberals credit: They’re getting better and better at coming up short.
Take CNN’s view on the Democrats’ loss in Tuesday election in Arizona, where Republican Debbie Lesko defeated Democrat Democrat Hiral Tipirneni by at least 5 percentage points.
“Why the win for Republicans in Arizona 8 is still good for Democrats,” CNN wrote (No, this is not The Onion, we swear).
Here’s the crux of writer Harry Enten’s point:
In a neutral environment, the margin should be much wider. President Donald Trump won the district by 21 percentage points in 2016 and Mitt Romney won it by 25 percentage points in 2012. Combining those outcomes and controlling for how well Democrats did nationally in each of those contests, we can say that Arizona 8 is 25 points more Republican than the nation. Lesko looks like she’s going to do about 20 percentage points worse than that.
And then he expands outward to draw life-giving optimism from all things: “The result in Arizona 8 fits a pattern so far in special congressional elections this cycle. In every one of the nine so far, Democrats have outperformed the partisan baseline based on the prior two presidential elections.”
For the record, the liberal fivethirtyeight.com website came to the same conclusion. Savant Nate Silver said almost the exact same thing: “The area has traditionally been extremely Republican, having voted for John McCain by 22 points in 2008, Mitt Romney by 25 points in 2012, and President Trump by 21 points in 2016.”
But let’s dig a bit deeper into these claims buy the “experts.” The New York Times reports that 173,708 votes were cast in all 143 precincts of the 8th Congressional District. But here’s the thing: Special elections draw out far fewer voters than mid-terms or presidential elections. In 2016, nearly twice as many people — 327,325 people — voted in the 8th District than they did on Tuesday.
Now, these “experts” might be able to say that the enthusiasm was a bit higher on the Democratic side, because they turned out 82,318 Democrats (in 2016, 120,992 people voted for Hillary Clinton), whereas the Republicans turned out 91,390 Republicans (in 2016, 190,163 people voted for Donald Trump).
But that’s about the extent of the good news. Does the MSM really think GOP voters won’t turn out for the far more important mid-terms — and especially the presidential election in 2020?