brian wang

There is an OECD world economic projection out to 2060. It has China and India getting far stronger economically but predicts that China will not do better than 50% of US GDP PPP per capita in 2060. India stays below about 35% of US GDP PPP per capita. Indonesia is projected to get to about 42% of US GDP PPP per capita. South Korea today is already at 70% of US GDP per capita and the 2060 projection is South Korea stalls at 85 fo US GDP per capita.

This projection assumes that most of the development catchup ends around 2040.

It also assumes that there is slowing technological improvement and slowing GDP growth around the world.

The report only talks about financial and policy restructuring and tax increases to cover increasing health costs.

NextBigfuture think this scenario will not happen. There will be big developments with AI, biotech, nanotech, robotics, space and other technoloies which will boost productivity and growth.

The Long View: Scenarios for the World Economy to 2060