We reported last week that early ballots show a huge increase in voting in favor of Republicans.
It looks like our prediction continues to hold up!
On June 23, 2018, we reported that the 2018 Mid-terms would be a referendum on government corruption and because of this President Trump and the Republicans would win big.
This was before Democrats made up trumped up charges against a good man – Supreme Court Judge Brett Kavanaugh.
After the Kavanaugh hearings, where Judge Kavanaugh was wrongfully accused by the Democrats of being a gang rapist, the tide changed. We made our prediction on the election and we stated that a huge red wave was coming. Our mid-term prediction on October 2nd was that the Republicans would win big in the Senate and would keep the House.
Early voting continues to indicate that the tide is turning red! Democrats are showing less than their 2016 early returns which is expected. The bigger news is that Republicans are ahead of their 2016 early ballot pace!
In a series of tweets Larry Schweikart showed last week that early returns are shockingly strong for Republicans.
Larry explained that he examines ballot requests and ballot returns by party and in 2016 party ID was the single best predictor of a vote according to Pew [Research] and that party switchers in 2016 were 2 to 1 in favor of Democrats voting Republican:
So Larry compared last week’s numbers to 2016. In four states where there are already a large number of ballot requests (Arizona, Florida, Ohio and Iowa) so far Republicans are exceeding 2016 numbers:
In four sample states where we are already seeing large numbers of ballot requests—AZ, FL, OH, and IA—and which have very different voting patterns, Larry found that so far the Republicans are exceeding their numbers.
Last week Democrats were behind 2016 Presidential year numbers and Republicans were ahead – this is not supposed to happen