Source: Brian C. Joondeph
Listen to network or cable news and you will hear that the November election is over. Joe Biden has a growing double-digit lead over President Trump, despite the election being over three months away and the issues that may decide the election largely unknown at present.
What do the polls say? Biden’s campaign manager, also known as CNN, has their “poll of polls” described as, “the five most recent national telephone polls measuring the view of registered voters.” Considering that only 58 percent of eligible voters went to the polls in 2016, CNN’s “poll of polls” may not be particularly representative of the electorate.
CNN’s headline screams déjà vu, “Biden maintains a double-digit lead over Trump nationally.” That’s it then, the election is over. Trump supporters may as well pack it up and stay home. At least that is what they want you to believe.
Four years ago, the media was singing the same tune. On June 26, 2016, Time reported, “Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton holds a double-digit lead over presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump.” How did that turn out?
To Clinton’s credit, despite her falls, bizarre facial tics, needing to be carried into a van, and overall unlikability, she was generally coherent. Unlike Biden who can’t get through a scripted interview without saying something incoherent, as he recently claimed his campaign attorneys are reaching out to “voter registration physicians.”
Perhaps he was referring to the next Nolan Ryan, baseball pitcher Dr Fauci, who through his ever-changing recommendations is seeking to influence the election in a way Russia could only dream of.
Let’s look at CNN’s gaggle of polls. The Washington Post – ABC News poll sampled 1,000 adults. Not likely voters, not registered voters, not even eligible voters, just whoever answered the phone. They also oversampled Democrats by 6 percentage points and their sample contained 399 Trump supporters compared to 522 Biden supporters, over a 25 percent advantage for Biden.
It’s no wonder their survey found Biden favored over Trump 54 to 39 percent, reflecting the sample. Is this designed to inform or influence the electorate?
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The Quinnipiac University poll of registered voters, oversampled Democrats by 10 points, 34 to 24 percent. Their poll favored Biden over Trump 52 to 37 percent, a 15-point margin, two-thirds of which is negated by the skewed poll sample.
The Fox News poll oversampled Democrats by 4 points with Biden winning by an 8-point margin. Despite the voting preference for Biden, the poll was split evenly on whether Trump would be reelected.
Are there “secret Trump voters,” a discrepancy between who voters favor and who they think will win? A recent Monmouth University poll illustrated this phenomenon. Voters favored Biden over Trump 53 to 40 percent but were evenly split on who they thought would actually win the election, Trump over Biden by 46 to 45 percent.
This is like asking a sports fan who they want to win the game versus who they think will win. The latter question provides the more accurate prediction.
The Just the News Daily Poll might give Biden some concern. Trump cut Biden’s lead in half and gained 13 points among independents since last month, the group that may ultimately decide the election.
One of the most accurate polls in 2016, Rasmussen Reports, showed Biden this week with only a two point advantage over Trump, 47 to 45 percent, among likely voters, even with a 4-point Democrat oversampling. If the sample was equally balanced between Democrats and Republicans, Trump might have a 2-point advantage.
What about these “secret voters”? Might they portend a Trump landslide? The Cato Institute’s poll revealed,
62 percent of Americans say they have political views they’re afraid to share.
These fears cross partisan lines. Majorities of Democrats (52%), independents (59%) and Republicans (77%) all agree they have political opinions they are afraid to share.
Strong liberals stand out, however, as the only political group who feel they can express themselves.
This is the “silent majority” which Trump tweeted is “alive and well.” Which group would be afraid to speak out, Trump supporters or detractors?
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Trump-bashing is the norm in virtually all news media, on social media, academia, Hollywood, professional sports, and corporate America. Share your political views and get cancelled, but only if your views are conservative or politically incorrect, the views of most Trump voters.
Here is a list of those suffering the wrath of the modern thought police, cancelled due to old opinions or saying something verboten like “all lives matter.” Liberals are the only ones free to say what they really think, without consequence, as the Cato survey confirms.
Wearing a MAGA hat may get you beat up. A Trump bumper sticker may get your car keyed. A Bernie sticker will only get a laugh, not destruction. It’s likely that the 62 percent afraid to speak out are predominantly Trump supporters, else why would they be afraid to share their views, with friends, coworkers, or pollsters. Is this group the silent majority, including self-described Democrats secretly supporting Trump?
If a majority of Democrats are afraid to speak out. Is this because they are uncomfortable supporting the radical leftist Democrat agenda among friends and family or are they disgusted by it, now favoring Trump, and unwilling to go public with their great awakening? How many Democrats and Independents make up this “silent majority” who may vote for Trump, but are afraid to share their views?
As most know, sharing pro Trump views in a group setting may lead to being attacked, at least verbally from those who disagree. Sharing far left views will only receive an awkward silence or at worst an eyeroll, but nothing more. Guess which group is afraid to share their views, and likely their votes? Answer – conservative and Trump supporters.
Two last bits of good news for Trump. The Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll on June 24 gives Trump 49 percent total approval compared to Obama at 48 percent exactly four years ago. Obama won reelection easily against Mitt Romney, a far more formidable candidate compared to Dementia Joe.
The internals of Rasmussen’s poll are horrific for Democrats. 31 percent of black likely voters approve of Trump. In 2016, Trump won only 6 percent of the black vote. If he won 15 or 20 percent in November, only half this approval number, this becomes landslide territory.
If Democrats and the media truly believed Biden was on track to win easily, they would not be pushing for mail in ballots or against voter ID. A large Biden poll lead now allows the left to prepare the narrative of electoral fraud since how else could Trump win against such a big lead. If Democrats retain the House, expect another impeachment based on Trump somehow rigging the election to go from a Biden double digit lead now to a Trump landslide in November.
These polls are not meant to inform the electorate but to dispirit Trump supporters in the hopes that they throw in the towel and tune out from the election and voting. Such information warfare didn’t work in 2016 and won’t work in 2020. Instead we might see a Trump landslide.