Source: Joe Hoft

The early voting results in Florida are shocking.  Republicans are up big!

The early results in Florida show President Trump up big – very big.  Republicans are up more than 200,000 votes in early voting.

Two big historically Democrat counties are currently competitive. These counties need to be way ahead for the Democrats in order for the Democrats to win Florida:

One month ago in late September Biden was predicted to win the election big:

Joe Biden’s chances of winning the Electoral College rose to 76.7%, according to the latest run of poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasting model, from 76.6% on Sept. 24. He is predicted to win 352 of 538 electoral votes.

But the chances of winning the election for Biden without winning Florida become much more difficult.  Florida has gone with the winner of the election since 1996.  CNN said a month ago Biden has only a 40% chance of winning the election without winning Florida:On the other hand, Biden has a number of ways to win without Florida. His easiest path (the states Hillary Clinton won in 2016 and Arizona, Michigan, Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district and Wisconsin) and his second easiest path (the Clinton states plus Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania) don’t rely on Florida.That’s why statistical modeling from FiveThirtyEight and Jack Kersting indicate that Biden has a better than a 95% chance of winning the entire election if he wins in Florida. And even if he loses Florida, Biden still has about a 40% chance of winning the entire election.

Unfortunately for Biden,  seven Republican states don’t start voting till today: