Woke politics could cause fissures in the Democrats’ coalition.

Source: Jose Nino

Did Democrats’ “Defund the police” message alienate a number of minority groups? 

David Shor, a data scientist with a specialization in political poll analysis and a Senior Fellow with the Center for American Progress Action Fund, was interviewed by Eric Lievitz of New York Magazine’s Intelligencer about some of the minority gains Trump made during the 2020 elections. 

Shor is currently the head of data science at  OpenLabs, a progressive nonprofit, and is known for his unconventional takes on minority outreach. In his interview with Lievitz, Shor made some interesting assertions. The 2020 elections were notable in that Republicans did make gains with non-whites. Shor observed that “Our [Democrats] support among African Americans declined by something like one to 2 percent. And then Hispanic support dropped by 8 to 9 percent.”

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Hispanics were talked about a lot, due to Trump’s strong performance in areas such as South Texas and Miami-Dade. Indeed, these Hispanic groups are quite different in socio-economic and cultural terms, demonstrating a broader national trend of Republicans gaining with Hispanics.

Shor observed this:

One important thing to know about the decline in Hispanic support for Democrats is that it was pretty broad. This isn’t just about Cubans in South Florida. It happened in New York and California and Arizona and Texas.

Broadly speaking, Shor claims that “What happened in 2020 is that nonwhite conservatives voted for Republicans at higher rates; they started voting more like white conservatives.”

Many will wonder why non-whites began shifting their support towards Republicans in 2020. Shor had his take on this development:

And we looked specifically at those voters who switched from supporting Hillary Clinton in 2016 to Donald Trump in 2020 to see whether anything distinguishes this subgroup in terms of their policy opinions.

What we found is that Clinton voters with conservative views on crime, policing, and public safety were far more likely to switch to Trump than voters with less conservative views on those issues. And having conservative views on those issues was more predictive of switching from Clinton to Trump than having conservative views on any other issue-set was.

One of the principal reasons why Hispanics likely flipped to the Republicans was the ‘defund the police” talking point that became prominent during the 2020 during the Black Lives matter unrest. Shor highlighted that “In the summer, following the emergence of “defund the police” as a nationally salient issue, support for Biden among Hispanic voters declined.

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