BIDEN DRAGS DEMOCRATS DOWN. Most of us see President Joe Biden’s falling job approval rating as a measure of his declining popularity. But for every candidate, Democrat or Republican, running for the House or Senate this year, Biden’s numbers mean political life or death. That is because the president’s job approval rating is an extraordinarily important factor in the midterm elections.
Biden’s is low and going lower. A new Pew poll puts Biden at 41% approval versus 56% disapproval. Those results are very close to the RealClearPolitics average of several polls, which has Biden at 40.8% approval and 55.2% disapproval.
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If those results continue, they will be felt in November. “In our increasingly polarized and nationalized politics, the single most determinative factor in midterm outcomes is the president’s job approval,” writes RealClearPolitics’s Sean Trende. “With both the House and Senate very narrowly split between the two parties, entering the 2022 elections with a president whose job approval is at this level carries catastrophic implications for the Democrats.”
Biden’s situation is particularly worrisome for Democrats because, historically, the president’s party usually loses seats in his first midterm election. But the president’s job approval has a huge effect on how big that loss will be.