Source: David Caron

A new poll that was conducted for Alaska GOP Senate Candidate Kelly Tshibaka shows her holding a huge lead over incumbent Sen Lisa Murkowski.

The longtime Alaska senator could be in trouble, despite the fact that the election format has been taylored to her liking.

Tshibaka netted 45.4% of the respondents support in the poll who would vote for her first in the ranked-choice voting system.

In order to win, a candidate needs to get over 50% plus one vote so that would put Tshibaka within 5% to win.

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As Breitbart noted, Murkowski has never gotten over 50% in any of her general election wins for the U.S. Senate.

Murkowski only garnered 28.7% and the only way that she could win in this scenario would be essentially if every voter ranked her next on their ballots after their preferred candidate lost.

That seems like an unlikely scenario, although a generic Democrat did score a similar percentage to Murkowski, according to Breitbart, so that could conceivably make things dicey for Tshibaka.

Tshibaka has been endorsed by the 45th President Donald Trump, as Murkowski voted to convict him during his February 2021 impeachment trial.

Axios recently noted that the election to replace the late GOP Rep. Don Young will test the new voting system and could indicate the re-election prospects of Murkowski.

Tshibaka spoke at CPAC in February and told the crowd that she can’t be “bullied, silenced, or controlled.”