Source: Mike LaChance
Some liberal media outlets have begun to accept the idea that Republicans will probably win back the House this fall, maybe even the Senate.
But how big is the red wave that’s coming?
Writer Jeffrey H. Anderson suggests that voters are much angrier than pundits realize and that Republican gains could be greater than anyone is expecting.
He writes at American Greatness:
GOP Gains Could Be Twice What the Cook Political Report Predicts
Voters appear poised to clobber the party that brought us COVID lockdowns, mask and vaccine mandates, and inflation. Indeed, rising inflation has largely resulted from COVID-related disincentives to work, disrupted supply chains, and blowout spending, along with federal restrictions on oil and gas production. It’s perhaps surprising, therefore, that the Cook Political Report foresees Republican gains in the House of Representatives as being only “in the 15-25 seat range,” while its projections suggest that Democrats have at least a coin flip’s chance of holding the Senate.
In a widely read piece, Cook’s Amy Walter grants that “both sides see the possibility of a Red Tsunami in 2022” and that “every metric we use . . . point[s] to huge gains for the GOP this fall.” Walter nevertheless remains skeptical that a big Republican wave will materialize, in part because “districts are more polarized than ever,” leaving fewer competitive seats on the board. Her skepticism, however, is also rooted in (and perhaps informs) which numbers she chooses to use in her analysis…
… Republicans appear poised to make big gains in the House. Indeed, putting all of this together, GOP gains in the House could be twice as large as the midpoint of Walter’s projection. While things could change over the next six months (although the cake is probably largely baked), a GOP gain of 30 to 40 House seats appears more likely at this stage of the contest than Walter’s projected GOP gain of 15 to 25 seats.