Posted BY: John Kudla
Yes, folks, the red wave is real and coming to your town soon.
I have discussed the types of bias that can occur in political polling in several previous articles, one of which you can read here. Unfortunately, that bias is still out there. More on that later.
I have also discussed the hidden conservative vote, now officially recognized by pollsters and referred to as partisan non-response bias. This means Democrats want to talk to the pollsters, and Republicans don’t.
In 2020, polls overestimated Joe Biden’s support by roughly 4% nationwide and by an average of 4.3 points at the state level. The only factor the American Association for Public Research could point to for the polling miss was partisan non-response bias.
What is partisan non-response bias?
Imagine you are a conservative working at a woke corporation or a leftist college. Or imagine you are a union member or are friends with a group of liberals. If you admit you are a conservative, you could lose your job, ruin your career, or be shunned or ostracized.