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Democrat Oversample: Fox News Poll Claims Roy Moore Losing Despite Faulty Numbers

November 18, 2017 Leave a comment

A Fox News Poll of 649 likely voters in Alabama released on Thursday and conducted between Monday and Wednesday of this week shows Democratic candidate Doug Jones with an eight point lead over Republican candidate Judge Roy Moore in the December 12 special election for the Alabama U.S. Senate seat once held by Attorney General Jeff Sessions, 50 percent to 42 percent, with a 3.5 percent margin of error.

That poll stands in striking contrast to a Fox10/Strategy Research poll of 3,000 likely voters in Alabama released on Wednesday and conducted on Monday of this week that shows Moore with a six point lead over Jones, 49 percent to 43 percent, with a two percent margin of error.

The 14 point differential between the two polls conducted over the same three day period contributes to the great uncertainty surrounding the election thrown into chaos by unsubstantiated allegations of sexual harassment made against Judge Moore over the past week by several women.

The Real Clear Politics Average of Polls, which includes those two polls as well as three recent additional polls, shows the race is a virtual tie, with Moore having an eight tenths of one percent lead.

One possible explanation of the wide variance between the two most recent polls may be found in the different sampling and party affiliation weighting techniques used by the different firms.

The Fox News Poll sample of 649 likely voters included 48 percent Republicans, 42 percent Democrats, and 10 percent Independents, which appears to be an unusual oversampling of Democrats and undersampling of Republicans.

Party affiliation of the Fox10/Strategy Research Poll was not included in the story announcing its results, but another poll included in the current Real Clear Politics Average of Polls conducted by Opinion Savvy on November 9, which showed the race to be a tie, has a very different weighting by party affiliation than the Fox News Poll.

The Opinion Savvy Poll conducted on November 9 of 515 likely Alabama voters included 58 percent Republicans, 29 percent Democrats, and 13 percent Independents.

Another unusual aspect of the Fox News Poll released on Thursday that shows Democrat Jones with an eight point lead over Moore is that it appears to contain a sample of Alabama likely voters in which 51 percent voted for Donald Trump and 48 percent voted for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Presidential election.

This calculation is arrived at by examining the results of question number eight in the Fox News Poll, which shows that 49 percent of likely voters in Alabama have a favorable view of President Trump, while 48 percent have an unfavorable view.

Among Trump voters in the Fox News Poll sample, 91 percent had a favorable view of President Trump, while eight percent had an unfavorable view of President Trump. Among Hillary Clinton voters in the sample, six percent had a favorable view of President Trump, while 91 percent had an unfavorable view of President Trump.

On election day in 2016, President Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in Alabama by a 63 percent to 35 percent margin.

Texas Church Shooter Was Antifa Member Who Vowed To Start Civil War

November 8, 2017 Leave a comment

The gunman who opened fire inside a church in Sutherland Springs, Texas, has been identified as Devin Kelley, an Antifa member who vowed to start a civil war by “targeting white conservative churches” and causing anarchy in the United States.

Wilson County Commissioner Albert Gamez Jr said that at least 27 people have been killed in the shooting, according to reports by the CNN and the BBC, with the confirmed death toll expected to climb in the coming hours.

Witnesses report they saw Devin Kelley walk into the Baptist Church in the small town 30 miles from San Antonio at 11:30am local time Sunday, according to KSAT-12.

Police have identified Antifa member Devin Patrick Kelley as the Sutherland Springs Church Killer
Police have identified Antifa member Devin Patrick Kelley as the Sutherland Springs Church Killer

Devin Kelley, who killed at least 27 people and injured many more, was one of two shooters in the church, according to eyewitnesses, who also report Kelley carried an Antifa flag and told the churchgoers “this is a communist revolution” before unloading on the congregation, reloading several times.

devin-kelly-church

Sheriff Joe Tackitt confirmed to Wilson County News that there have been “multiple fatalities” and the shooter has been “taken down.”

Devin Kelley’s Facebook page stated that he was an atheist and his interests included “Civil and social rights” and “Civil rights” as well as endorsements for local Texan Democratic political candidates. His page also featured photos of several high powered weapons.

His Facebook page was taken down without explanation less than an hour after the shooting.

Screenshot of a photo uploaded to Devin Kelly's Facebook profile.
Screenshot of a photo uploaded to Devin Kelley’s Facebook profile.

An eyewitness told CBS News that there was a heavy police presence on the road to the church, adding that they had seen severely injured people being airlifted from the area.

antifa-target-whitey
Screenshot of leaked chat between Antifa members threatening to target “whitey” and conservative churches.

Texas Governor Greg Abbott posted to Twitter shortly after the mass shooting, saying: “Our prayers are with all who were harmed by this evil act. Our thanks to law enforcement for their response. More details from DPS soon.”

 

Report: GOP Tax Plan Could Raise GDP By 5%, Wages 7%

October 24, 2017 Leave a comment

Framework could increase wages by $4,000 in a year, says economist

President Donald Trump’s tax reform framework could raise GDP by as much as 5 percent and wages by as much as 7 percent, according to a new study from Boston University economists.

“We find that, depending on the year considered, the new Republican tax plan raises GDP by between 3 and 5 percent and real wages by between 4 and 7 percent,” the economists explain. “This translates into roughly $3,500 annually more annual real take-home pay for the average American household.”

Economists believe this growth can happen due to the plan’s aim to reduce the marginal effective corporate tax rate from 34.6 percent to 18.6 percent, which they believe will grow the capital stock by 12 to 20 percent.

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Newspaper caught photoshopping Trump (as Hitler!)

October 21, 2017 Leave a comment

“On the Holmes Front with Frank Holmes”

Source: Horn News

Readers in Ohio were shocked on Monday morning when they picked up their morning paper and saw a picture of Donald Trump – with a Hitler moustache.

The Wapakoneta Daily News in Wapakoneta, Ohio, ran the Photoshopped image right on the front page on October 16.

If critics needed more proof that the mainstream media was incredibly unfair, look no further than this.

Right above the day’s weather, a Tribune News Service picture of the commander-in-chief showed the president giving a speech, with a tiny black square underneath his nose.

The photo of our president morphed into Der Fuehrer ran alongside a news story by local reporter Dave Vorhees on how local residents thought President Trump had handled natural disaster relief. (Most approved.)

That outraged residents of Wapakoneta – a city of 9,816 people about an hour south of Toledo.

Reader Gary Bryan wrote on the newspaper’s Facebook page that, whether the editorial board likes it or not, Donald Trump “is, at this time, the president of the United States, and altering a picture to make him look like Hitler is unacceptable. Shame on you!”

“Imagine the uproar if somebody did that to the last to the last President,” wrote Tim and Kathy Doty. “It should cost somebody their job, if it was intentional.”

The paper posted a statement about the picture online Monday – and the half-hearted apology was almost as offensive as the photo.

The staff said the newspaper “regrets” the “sloppy” editing, which gave the president “a mustache.”

“While we edit photos on a daily basis, this particular photo was edited in a sloppy manner to make it appear the president had a mustache,” wrote the newspaper’s publisher, Deb Zwez. “The Wapakoneta Daily News would never intentionally insult our president in any manner.”

The readers didn’t buy it.

“How can anyone trust anything printed by your paper, if you’re not going to tell the truth about the manner of this mistake?” Jeremy Stewart wrote on their Facebook page.

“That does not look like an accident,” wrote reader David Archer. “It’s sad what the media has become.”

Zwez ran a front page column on Tuesday – which, incredibly, still downplayed the photo.

“There’s no way to sugar coat it and there’s no way we’re going to come out of this without our reputation damaged,” she began.

So far, so good.

But she repeated that the president “appears to be sporting a mustache”…not that he had been made to look like one of the greatest monsters in human history.

“The manipulation belongs to us,” she admitted. But she wrote that during the editing process, a “blob” was somehow “dropped onto the document.”

Oops.

“At this writing, I haven’t been able to determine at what point in the process this manipulation occurred,” she wrote.

So, no one is going to pay a price for “showing disrespect” to Trump.

“In a climate where ‘fake news and lying media’ seem to resonate, this kind of ‘prank’ does nothing to engender your confidence that we are doing our best to provide news in a responsible, fair and unbiased manner,” she wrote.

No, it does not – and critics say neither does the newspaper’s half-hearted apology.

 

This wasn’t a “prank” created by dropping a “blob” on a picture.

Someone wanted to compare Donald Trump to Adolf Hitler, one of the most twisted mass murderers in human history. And they used the newspaper’s front page to make sure they rammed it down the throats of their small town, conservative audience.

Make no mistake about it – Wapakoneta is the American heartland. It is a Norman Rockwell painting come to life.

It’s best known for being the hometown of Neil Armstrong, the first man to walk on the moon – and, reportedly, a Republican.

Trump crushed Hillary Clinton with voters in the area – by more than three-to-one! Trump won 78 percent of the vote in Auglaize County, Ohio, where Wapakoneta is located.

There’s no telling how they responded to the second “apology,” since the paper didn’t post it on social media.

Since the election, unhinged leftists have been spewing their hatred at Trump and the 63 million Americans who voted for him. The commander-in-chief has been called a Nazi, and his followers have been branded “literally Hitler.”

Americans don’t expect much of MSNBC, late-night comics, or the so-called mainstream media – especially Americans in small, God-fearing towns like Wapakoneta.

But to see such petty, Trump-hating bias taken down to the local level in an overwhelmingly “red” town – where people take faith, family, and country seriously – is way out of line.

Readers deserve a real apology that owns up to the facts: Somebody at this small town paper seems to think 78 percent of his, or her, readers are goose-stepping Brown shirts… that they’re totalitarians ready to destroy the country.

And that person should lose their job over this. I’m sure The Nation or Huffington Post would welcome that person with open arms.

Most people in Wapakoneta would rather put a boot in another part of his body.

— Frank Holmes is a reporter for The Horn News. He is a veteran journalist and an outspoken conservative that talks about the news that was in his weekly article, “On The Holmes Front.”

Hillary Clinton Urges Britain To Cease USA Trading While Trump Is President

October 18, 2017 Leave a comment

Hillary Clinton has urged Britain to end all trade with the U.S. while President Donald Trump remains in office, in an astonishing interview with the BBC. 

The former U.S. presidential candidate warned British Prime Minister Theresa May that Trump cannot be trusted to honor a potential trade deal with Britain after it has left the European Union.

Moneycontrol.com reports: The British government has talked up the prospect of bilateral trade deals with the United States and others as one of the major benefits of leaving the EU following last year’s surprise referendum vote to leave.

Asked about the prospects of a British-U.S. deal, Clinton told the BBC: “You’re making a trade deal with somebody who says he doesn’t believe in trade, so I’m not quite sure how that’s going to play out over the next few years.”

British Prime Minister Theresa May visited Trump in January to talk trade. The countries share $200 billion of trade each year.

But May has since intervened in a dispute between U.S. aerospace firm Boeing and Canadian planemaker Bombardier, lobbying in the interests of Bombardier to try to protect jobs at its factory in Northern Ireland.

Clinton also said Britain would be at a “very big disadvantage” if divorce negotiations with the EU failed, and went on to compare the factors behind the Brexit vote to her own election loss.

“Looking at the Brexit vote now it was a precursor to some extent to what happened to us in the United States… The amount of fabricated, false information that your voters were given by the ‘Leave’ campaign,” she said.

She said her own presidential campaign was subject to similar treatment, citing the spread of false stories by online news outlets, and warned that Britain and other countries must be alert to the risks of such new media.

“The big lie is a very potent tool,” she said.

Las Vegas Press Conference Changes The Narrative Again!

October 15, 2017 Leave a comment

The official narrative continues to change

Following the trend of past press conferences, LVPD changed the timeline of the Las Vegas Massacre once again.

FEMA Director Urges Americans to Develop “a true culture of preparedness” But No One Is Listening

September 30, 2017 Leave a comment

Daisy Luther

It looks like preppers aren’t that crazy after all. FEMA’s new director, Brock Long, has repeatedly said that Americans do not have a “culture of preparedness,” something that is much-needed with the startling uptick in natural disasters. Long has only been the director of FEMA since June 20 of this year and already has had to deal with a historic number of disasters in this short period of time.

It appears that Mr. Long has a mindset of self-reliance based on a couple of recent statements he has made to the media, but the MSM doesn’t seem too interested in his ideas about fostering a culture of preparedness, despite the practicality and essential nature of his suggestions.

First, in an interview from Sept. 11 that I personally only heard about yesterday, Long spoke with journalists to discuss the response to Hurricane Irma. In the interview, he said some things that vindicate all of us who have spent time and money working toward being prepared.

“I really think that we have a long way to go to create a true culture of preparedness within our citizenry in America. No American, no citizen, no visitor to this country is immune to disaster. And we have a long way to go to get people to understand the hazards based on where they dwell, where they work, and how to be prepared financially, how to be prepared through insurance, how to have continuity of operations plans for their businesses, so that we can avoid the suffering, the strife, and the loss of life. It’s truly disappointing that people won’t heed the warnings.

Straight out of our favorite prepper handbooks, right?

Of course, the reporter quickly shifted from the actual useful information to start asking about climate change, because for some reason she felt that was far more essential than the practical advice Mr. Long was offering. You can watch the interview below.

Some of those numbers were shocking – FEMA is spending 200 million dollars a day in relief efforts and desperately-needed help has hardly even begun for Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.

In a more recent statement, Mr. Long re-emphasized the need to be prepared, and to start kids off young with this mindset.

I think that the last 35 days or so have been a gut check for Americans that we do not have a true culture of preparedness in this country. And we’ve got a lot of work to do.

Whether it’s in education and being ready, it’s not just saying, hey, have three days worth of supplies ready to go. It’s greater than that. It’s also people having the finances and the savings to be able to overcome simple emergencies.

We have to hit the reset button and create a true culture of preparedness starting at a very young age and filtering all the way up.

We in the preparedness community have been saying this for ages, Mr. Long, but thank you for attempting to put this front and center.

One thing that is different about Long’s approach is the practicality. Many government officials seem to forget about the financial end of emergencies. They can’t seem to wrap their brains around the fact that while they have 200 million dollars a day, most folks do not. This is why financial preparedness is of such massive importance. If you had to live away from home without access to a kitchen, the expenses would rack up pretty quickly. As well, think about how thinly those millions are spread.

FEMA is eventually going to run out of money.

As well, think about how thinly those millions are spread. One person I know who lost her rental home will receive $4000. That has to replace everything she owns: furniture, clothing, personal items, food, cleaning products…you get the idea…plus pay first and last month’s rent for a new apartment. People without flood insurance who lost their homes will be eligible for a maximum of only $21,000. But if their property wasn’t paid for, they’ll still owe the mortgage payments on a place that is uninhabitable.

Don’t forget that FEMA is also providing aid for those displaced by more than 2 million acres of wildfires throughout the Western US. (Although initially, they turned down requests for assistance, they reconsidered.)

When you look at the true cost of disasters on this scale, it’s hard to imagine that FEMA will have enough money should these emergencies continue, or even enough to cover our current tab.

There were reports that FEMA had run out of money shortly after Hurricane Harvey, but more appeared for Hurricane Irma.

One article blithely suggested that FEMA can never run out of money because Congress will just vote to give them more when addressing concerns that FEMA was down to its last billion dollars.

 But the U.S. Congress quickly put such worries to rest on Sept. 8, 2017, by hastily passing legislation that gave the DRF an infusion of cash.

“The emergency supplemental appropriation of $7.4 billion allows FEMA to continue to fully focus on the ongoing preparation, response, and recovery needs,” said an agency spokesperson via email.

While legislators may have cut it a bit close, there was little chance that FEMA actually would run out of cash. According to a Congressional Research Service analysis, Congress made 14 supplemental appropriations to the fund between 2004 and 2013, for a total of $89.6 billion. In one year alone — 2005, the year that Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans and other areas in the Gulf Coast — legislators bolstered the fund with three extra appropriations amounting to $43 billion. (source)

This, of course, naively assumes that there will always be more money to give to FEMA. Eventually, we’re going to run out.

Is this the reason for the slow response to Puerto Rico?

Personally, I keep wondering if a lack of money is the reason for our slow response to the desperate situation in Puerto Rico. Add to this the logistical problems, and you have a recipe for chaos.

Another thing to keep in mind about Puerto Rico is that this is one of the rare situations in which stockpile preparedness may not have done any good. While some folks like to say that Puerto Ricans shouldn’t be out of food within 6 days after the disaster, what they aren’t considering is the totality of the destruction.

A man reacts as he walks through a debris-covered road in Fajardo, Puerto Rico.

photo credit

What food people may have had stored was destroyed when homes were turned into piles of rubble. Other food spoiled soon after the power for the entire island was taken out. If you look at these photos, you will understand why few people have food.

I imagine in such a situation, my own carefully preserved jars of food would have been smashed to bits and my freeze-dried food would have been soaked in flood waters. In most situations, your stockpile will see you through, but in a disaster of this magnitude, even the most well-prepared person could be left with nothing.

Maybe money is why the director is urging a culture of preparedness.

Perhaps this reality is why Mr. Long is so adamant that Americans need to get prepared to take care of themselves and that we need to raise our children to understand this too. That’s not the warm fuzzy thing that people who refuse to prepare want to hear, so the mainstream media gives his advice little attention.

A culture of preparedness is indeed the answer, and preppers have known this for a very long time.

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