NO, ABORTION WON’T RESCUE DEMS IN NOVEMBER. There’s a lot of speculation that a Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade, if that indeed happens, would be a boost for Democrats in this November’s midterm elections. There seems no doubt the decision will motivate some part of the Democratic base. But the question is: Who? How many? And how important would they be to the election results?
Polling shows that abortion is not at the highest level of voter concerns, even after the unprecedented leak of a draft decision that would end Roe. Politico conducted a rush poll after the leak, and it did not find an electorate obsessed with abortion.
The question Politico asked was: “Thinking about your vote, what would you say is the top set of issues on your mind when you cast your vote for federal offices such as U.S. Senate or Congress?” The pollsters gave respondents seven choices: 1) economic issues, such as taxes, wages, and jobs; 2) security issues, such as terrorism, foreign policy, and the border; 3) healthcare issues, such as Obamacare and Medicaid; 4) seniors issues, such as Medicare and Social Security; 5) women’s issues, such as birth control, abortion, and equal pay; 6) education issues, such as school standards, class sizes, and school choice; and 7) energy issues, such as carbon emissions, renewables, and the cost of electricity and gasoline.