Solar Weather Forecast Updated 12-10-16
K-indices of 5 or greater indicate storm-level geomagnetic activity around earth.
:Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2016 Dec 10 0031 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2615 (S06W88, Hsx/alpha) appeared to be slightly decaying as it approached the west limb. The region only managed to produce an isolated B1 flare at 09/0725 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-flares on day one (10 Dec) and very low levels for the remainder of the forecast period (11-12 Dec) as Region 2615 rotates around the west limb. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux ranged from normal to high levels with a maximum flux of 4,227 pfu observed at 09/1650 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels throughout the forecast period (10-12 Dec). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters indicated the continued influence of a negative polarity, polar extension, CH HSS. Solar wind speed ranged from 528 km/s to 733 km/s. Total field ranged from 3 nT to 13 nT while the Bz component was variable between +/-9 nT. Phi angle was predominantly in a negative (towards) sector. .Forecast... Solar wind speed is expected to persist around 600-700 km/s range for the next 24 hours (10 Dec) under the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds are expected to slowly decline on days two and three (11-12 Dec). Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to continued CH HSS influence. An isolated G1 (Minor) storm level was observed during the 09/1800-2100 UTC period. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels on day one (10 Dec) as CH HSS effects persist. Quiet to active levels are expected on day two (11 Dec) with quiet to unsettled levels on day three (12 Dec) as CH HSS effects slowly diminish.