Solar Weather Forecast Updated 3-3-17
K-indices of 5 or greater indicate storm-level geomagnetic activity around earth.
:Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2017 Mar 04 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was very low. Region 2641 (N15W10, Bxo/beta) produced low level B-class flare activity and continued to show signs of decay. Region 2642 (N15W17, Bxo/beta) was inactive and also displayed indications of decay. The other remaining spot, Region 2638 (N16W83, Hsx/alpha), was unremarkable and continued its migration closer to the western limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flare activity over the next three days (04-06 Mar). Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with a peak flux of 19,000 pfu observed at 03/1700 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels during all three days of the forecast period (04-06 Mar) due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment was enhanced due to a negative polarity, polar-connected CH HSS. Solar wind speed started the period at 690 km/s and declined to period ending values of approximately 630 km/s. Total field (Bt) was steady reaching a high of 6 nT during the period. The Bz component was variable, and ranged between +/- 5 nT. The phi angle was oriented in a primarily negative solar sector. .Forecast... The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced on days one and two (04-05 Mar) under persistent CH HSS influence. Day three (06 Mar) should see a gradual return to near background conditions. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (minor) storm levels due to continued CH HSS effects. .Forecast... Geomagnetic field conditions are expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with a chance for G1 (minor) storming on day one (04 Mar), as a result of the enhanced solar wind environment. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected on day two (05 Mar) as CH HSS effects begin to taper. By day three (06 Mar), mostly quiet levels are anticipated as the CH HSS becomes even less influential on the near Earth environment.