Posted BY: John Kudla

Here are my predictions for some of the various state governor elections.

In a previous article, I explained why Republicans could see an election wave as high as 12-points in parts of the country.  Even so, I am trying to read the polls and stay cautious.

You can see the Pew Research state party affiliation numbers here.  These are just for comparison with the party splits in individual polls and includes leaners.

For reference, most 2020 Biden polling error numbers are taken from this New York Times article or from the Real Clear Politics 2020 polling averages.  So Biden +4 means polls overestimated Biden’s vote by 4-points.  Biden -4 means the opposite.

In every poll mentioned, the economy/inflation, or some variation, is the top issue.  

Arizona: Lake-R vs. Hobbs-D

PollHobbs-DLake-RUndecidedParty SplitErrorLeader
Trafalgar4649436-D, 40-R, 24-I2.9%Lake +3
Susquehanna4847530-D, 38-R, 32-I4%Hobbs +1
DataForProg4650430-D, 31-R, 38-I3.3%Lake +4
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Arizona party affiliation is 39-D, 40-R, 21-I.

In the Susquehanna poll, Lake has a 5-point advantage in favorability over Hobbs.

In the Progress poll, Lake has a 7-point advantage in favorability.

Hobbs has two significant problems.  Obviously, one is favorability.  The other: She is polling about 2–3 points behind Lake with 4–5% undecided, which will mostly break Republican.

Prediction: Lake by 7.

Georgia: Kemp-R vs. Abrams-D.  The Real Clear Politics average has Kemp up by roughly 7-points.  Game over.  Abrams should have kept her day job as President of Earth.

Kansas: Kelly-D vs. Schmidt-R

PollKelly-DSchmidt-RPyle-I /UndecidedParty SplitErrorLeader
Emerson45433 / 829-D, 47-R, 24-I3%Kelly +2

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