Source: Brian C. Joondeph
Election day is almost here. Some things will end, like incessant campaign commercials, much to the relief of voters on both sides of the aisle. Other things will continue, including protests and riots, as we are seeing in Philadelphia, and as Kamala Harris promised.
Despite more than five years of slings and arrows hurled at President Trump, to derail his campaign, transition, and administration, Trump has a spring in his step. Not just when he is dancing to YMCA song at the end of each rally, but in his entire demeanor.
He is cool, confident, and on top of his game, unlike his opponent Joe Biden, who is frequently bumbling and incoherent. Whether he forgets Mitt Romney’s name, thinks he is running for Senate, or calls his current opponent “George,” his campaign does not radiate confidence or assurance. Even Democrat operatives, media cranks or campaign consultants, are starting to panic.
Trump has the momentum, what I prefer to call “Trumpmentum,” a healthy dose of mojo in the final week of the campaign. Trump has choreographed October as carefully as the finale of a season of The Apprentice, complete with mystery, fun, and engagement of his supporters to a degree not seen in recent political memory.
Start with the polls, wrong four years ago and likely again wrong this year. Earlier this month, Biden had 16-point lead nationally in a CNN poll. Even Rasmussen, one of the most accurate 2016 pollsters, gave Biden a 12-point lead a few weeks ago. But now it’s Trumpmentum season, erasing a Biden lead and this week Rasmussen has Trump up by a point over Biden.
The Trafalgar Group, the most accurate pollster in 2016, predicts Trump’s reelection. Trafalgar uses shorter and simpler surveys and measures the “neighbor question” – who do you think your neighbor is voting for?
Gallup asks something similar, not who you want to win but instead who you think will win. Trump tops Biden 56 to 40 percent. Gallup also asked registered voters, “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” 56 percent answered yes compared to only 32 percent saying no. Why jump off a winning horse? Trumpmentum.
Blacks comprise only 13 percent of the U.S. population and vote almost exclusively for Democrat presidential candidates. Past Republican candidates have captured no more than 10 percent of that voting bloc, Trump winning only eight percent in 2016.
Rasmussen shows Trump approval among blacks at 25 percent and when asked who they would vote for, 30 percent of blacks answered Trump. If Trump as a Republican captures half of that, it would be unprecedented in a presidential election, a historic realignment. Trumpmentum.
Which campaign has energy and enthusiasm, and which is as exciting as a root canal? Trump rallies draw tens of thousands, many waiting in mile-long lines for a day or more in the hopes of getting into the rally. Biden in contrast draws only tens, a few dozen attendees, mostly journalists and Secret Service.
Look at these photos from Conservative Treehouse revealing how Ivanka Trump drew a larger audience than former President Barack “The One” Obama, who to his credit engaged a larger audience than candidate Joe Biden.
Those are the formal rallies. What about the spontaneous Trump events?
Parades and caravans in Democrat strongholds like Brooklyn, Beverly Hills, and New Jersey. Trumpmentum.
October is a month of surprises, particularly ahead of a presidential election. The media gave Trump a five-year colonoscopy with a bunch of non-stories and duds. The worst we will hear between now and election day is how many scoops of ice cream Trump receives when returns to the White House after a day of campaign rallies.
Biden, on the other hand, is a daily news fest, despite censorship and willful denial by traditional and social media. Stories of decades-long family corruption, selling U.S. interests to Russia, Ukraine, China, and other less than friendly regimes, along with sordid photos and videos of Biden family members, fodder for blackmail of the potential future president of the United States. These crimes are coming to light, slowly but steadily. Hunter Biden, as the recent Tucker Carlson interview with Tony Bobulinski outlined, is the Biden family laundromat, laundering pay-to-play money from corrupt regimes to keep “the big guy” living a life way beyond his government salary means.
These revelations are bad enough that some early voters want to change their votes. Google searches for “can I change my vote” surged following revelations of sex tapes and grift from Hunter Biden’s laptop. Which way do you think these votes are being changed? Trumpmentum.
Just for fun, pretend there were no polls and we each had to form an opinion of the upcoming election based on what we observe – enthusiasm, rallies, messaging, and campaign confidence. If the weather gal says it will be warm and sunny and I see snow flurries outside my window, who will I believe? My own eyes or the opinions of the self-proclaimed smart set?
Lastly, Trump is a winner. He knows what he has been up against. Trump is an unstoppable force, knocking many into the ditch, from his primary opponents and Hillary Clinton in 2016, to Schiff, Nadler, and Pelosi. From Avenatti and Michael Cohen to the entirety of the mainstream media.
Betting against Trump is a losing bet, as the last five years demonstrated, especially when he is confident and, on a roll, as he is now. He has Trumpmentum and it’s best to stay out of his way.